Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (93.4%)
Resolved: Oct 1, 2026, 5:34 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 31, 2026, 9:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Yes6.6%
No93.4%
Won
Lost
Rules
Resolves YES if Jinbaobao's trailing twelve months (TTM) tin production is reported below 40,000 tonnes in their official production disclosures or industry reports as of August 31, 2026.
- Data sources include Jinbaobao's company reports, Chinese mining authorities, or verified industry publications.
- Given Jinbaobao's recent export ban impacting roughly 12% of global tin supply, this threshold near 40 kt reflects a critical level influencing global tin availability and pricing.
- Production figures must exclude downstream refining or recycling volumes and focus solely on mined tin output attributed to Jinbaobao.
- Jinbaobao's sudden tin export ban, covering 12% of global supply, significantly tightens the market, influencing pricing and availability.
- Source: Article
