Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (96.8%)
Resolved: Oct 1, 2026, 5:34 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 31, 2026, 9:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Yes3.2%
No96.8%
Won
Lost
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if Jinbaobao reports its trailing twelve months (TTM) tin production below 60,000 tonnes in official company disclosures or industry reports as of August 31, 2026.
- Data sources include Jinbaobao's production reports, Chinese mining statistics, or authoritative market intelligence.
- Given Jinbaobao's recent tin export ban impacting about 12% of global supply, this threshold reflects a near-term contraction in output amid ongoing geopolitical and supply chain constraints.
- Production figures must exclude recycled tin and only count primary mine output.
- This market evaluates the production level exactly on the settlement date, not cumulative or annual totals.
- Jinbaobao's sudden tin export ban, covering 12% of global supply, significantly tightens the market, influencing pricing and availability.