Will it become public that Monero has been compromised currently before 2030?
One-OffCryptoRegulation3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 76.3%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 33 minutes ago
Jun 27, 25, 1:42 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if credible evidence is made public before January 1, 2030, that the Monero protocol or its cryptographic primitives are compromised as of this market being created.
- The nature of the compromise must meaningfully affect Monero's privacy or fungibility guarantees - such as a backdoor in its ring signatures, zero-knowledge proofs, or stealth addressing mechanisms enabling de-anonymization or tracing of transactions.
- Evidence must be reported by a credible cryptographic researcher, cybersecurity firm, leaked government document, or whistleblower, and receive significant coverage from reputable sources (academic publications, major legacy news outlets, or promonant cryptography blogs).
- Purely theoretical attacks / unfounded speculation do not count.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
