Will I travel 500 miles away from home by December 31, 2027? (Not counting today. Google says I'm 496 miles from home.)
TechOne-Off1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 65%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJul 23, 26, 5:49 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point between July 25, 2026, and December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM (my local time), I travel to a location that is 500 or more miles away from my primary residence.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- Measurement: Distance is measured as a straight-line ("as the crow flies") distance from my primary residence to my furthest point of travel, calculated using Google Maps or an equivalent mapping tool.
- Exclusions: Travel undertaken or completed on or before July 23, 2026, does not count toward this market.
- As of July 23, 2026, I am currently 496 miles away from home, which does not meet the 500-mile threshold and is excluded from the timeline.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will I travel 500 miles away from home by December 31, 2027? (Not counting today. Google says I'm 496 miles from home.)?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 65% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will I travel 500 miles away from home by December 31, 2027? (Not counting today. Google says I'm 496 miles from home.) resolve?
- Will I travel 500 miles away from home by December 31, 2027? (Not counting today. Google says I'm 496 miles from home.) is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Will I travel 500 miles away from home by December 31, 2027? (Not counting today. Google says I'm 496 miles from home.) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria