Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (41%)
Resolved: Oct 8, 2026, 2:51 AM
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 8, 2026, 3:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If I set my curtain on fire and don't attempt to put it out for the first 1 minute, will my house burn down?
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PolymarketRules
We are located in Massachusetts.
- In the decade plus that we have lived in this house, we have always turned on the furnace before this date.
- We have kids, but they are not little anymore and generate quite a bit of heat on their own. 😜 In the past, we have usually caved and turned on the heat because we were entertaining, and we thought it’d be weird to force our guests to freeze with us.
- I will not bet in this market.
- Edit: my wife feels very strongly that we can make it far past this date with no heat, yet we never have.
- I will post periodic indoor temperatures.
