Current community forecast
No 84.1%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleDec 15, 25, 5:14 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
I am currently approved for Waymo in the SF peninsula service area, and am on the waiting list for freeway access.
- I have not yet used Waymo, but I plan to before the end of 2025 (https://manifold.markets/MingweiSamuel/will-i-be-able-to-hail-a-driverless-2lIA6zLStc).
- Resolves yes if I can book a ride from Oakland to SF (or reverse) and successfully do so.
- The ride must not have a safety driver.
- (If I book a trip but do have a safety driver, I will try at least one more time to get a ride without one) (If I am not physically able to attempt to book a ride to check for myself, I will resolve N/A)
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
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- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
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- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
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- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will I be able to hail a driverless autonomous vehicle from Oakland to SF or back by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will I be able to hail a driverless autonomous vehicle from Oakland to SF or back by the end of 2026? resolve?
- Will I be able to hail a driverless autonomous vehicle from Oakland to SF or back by the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will I be able to hail a driverless autonomous vehicle from Oakland to SF or back by the end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I am currently approved for Waymo in the SF peninsula service area, and am on the waiting list for freeway access.