Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 50.1%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleApr 7, 26, 2:55 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will hafnium unwrought metal price exceed 2000 USD/kg on December 31, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill hafnium unwrought metal price exceed 4000 USD/kg on December 31, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill hafnium unwrought metal price exceed 4000 USD/kg on December 31, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill hafnium unwrought metal price exceed 2000 USD/kg on December 31, 2030?
Manifold MarketsCATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill China restrict exports of tantalum on December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if hafnium unwrought metal price exceeds 6500 USD/kg on December 31, 2028.
- What is being measured: Hafnium unwrought metal spot price (USD/kg) on or nearest to December 31, 2028, based on USGS MCS annual average (for yearly markets) or Asian Metal / Argus Metals International spot quotes (for quarterly markets).
- YES if: Hafnium spot price >= 6500 USD/kg on December 31, 2028 NO if: Hafnium spot price < 6500 USD/kg on December 31, 2028
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries — Hafnium section (usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs) Published February annually; covers prior calendar year average price
- Asian Metal — hafnium unwrought China domestic price (asianmetal.com)
