What are the current odds for Will Elon Musk go to space by the end of 2026??

Manifold Markets prices No at 98.9% as of October 26, 2026.

When does Will Elon Musk go to space by the end of 2026? resolve?

Will Elon Musk go to space by the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 98.9%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 9 hours ago

Stale

Sep 11, 24, 9:11 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 10:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This market predicts whether Elon Musk will travel to space (reaching at least 100 km above Earth) by December 31, 2026.

The market resolves to "Yes" if reputable sources confirm that Musk has gone to space by this date, either aboard a SpaceX or other spacecraft.
If no such event occurs by the deadline, the market resolves to "No."