Will DeepSeek publish open weights for a V4-Flash vision model on Hugging Face before Oct 15, 2026?
Tokenization / RWAOne-OffAIChinaManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (84.7%)
Resolved: Sep 3, 2026, 4:11 AM
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Current community forecastYes 84.7%
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Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleAug 21, 26, 7:42 PMSep 3, 26, 4:11 AM
Trends
84.7%
15.3%
Rules
On 2026-08-21 DeepSeek announced V4-Flash-Vision-Exp as a paid, API-only model (billed per image token, production SLA, no waitlist) via https://api-docs.deepseek.com/news/news260821/ .
- As of market creation the weights are not on Hugging Face: the newest repo under https://huggingface.co/deepseek-ai is DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813 (2026-08-13).
- This breaks DeepSeek's usual pattern of shipping open weights alongside (or instead of) an API.
- Resolves YES if, at any time before 2026-10-15 00:00 UTC, the Hugging Face organization deepseek-ai (https://huggingface.co/deepseek-ai) hosts a public model repository that:
- is owned by the deepseek-ai org (third-party mirrors, re-uploads, quantizations, and forks by any other account do not count), AND
- is a vision / multimodal variant of V4-Flash — the repo name contains both V4-Flash and a vision marker (Vision, VL, or Multimodal), case-insensitive, AND
