Markers for conscious AI #1: AI passes introspection on world-models test
Tokenization / RWAAIOne-Off3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
<2027 37.6%Leader of 4 outcomes
<2027 37.6%Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleNov 2, 24, 3:07 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES on the option that bounds the year this resolves in most tightly e.g. option 2 <2027 if this resolves yes in 2026.
- When will a model pass the below described test:
- When are model self-reports informative about sentience? Let's check with world-model reports
- If an LM could reliably report when it has a robust, causal world model for arbitrary games, this would be strong evidence that the LM can describe high-level properties of its own cognition.
- In particular, IF the LM accurately predicted itself having such world models while varying all of: game training data quantity in corpus, human vs model skill, the average human’s game competency, THEN we would have an existence proof that confounds of the type plaguing sentience reports (how humans talk about sentience, the fact that all humans have it, …) have been overcome in another domain.
- Details of the test:
