Which company will have the top model on OpenRouter in December 2026?
Tokenization / RWAOne-OffAITech3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastDeepSeek 15.1%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJun 24, 26, 4:50 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which company's model will be #1 on Artificial Analysis at the end of September 2026
Manifold MarketsOpenAI issues crypto asset for financing before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhat chain will the NYSE choose for tokenized securities?
PolymarketWill the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain?
KalshiWill RWAs hit $50B by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market resolves to the company that authored the single most-used model on OpenRouter during December 2026, measured by token volume and computed from OpenRouter's official rankings dataset.
- Determination.
- Using OpenRouter's daily rankings dataset (GET /api/v1/datasets/rankings-daily), the determining query is start_date=2026-12-01 and end_date=2026-12-31 (UTC, inclusive).
- For each model (model_permaslug), total_tokens (= prompt_tokens + completion_tokens) is summed across all returned days in that window.
- The model with the highest December total is the "#1 model," and the market resolves to that model's author company.
- Tokens are not summed across a company's models — only the single highest-total model determines the outcome.
Open markets
Tokenization / RWAPOLYMARKETWill RWAs hit $50B by which date?
- December 31, 202648%
- December 31-0.1pt0%
- Total Vol
- $10.3K
- 24h Vol
- —
POLYMARKETWhat chain will the NYSE choose for tokenized securities?
- Multichain-0.5pt45%
- Own Chain+1.0pt44%
- Ethereum+0.1pt41%
+2 more outcomes
MANIFOLD MARKETSOpenAI issues crypto asset for financing before 2031?
- No69%
- Yes31%
- Total Vol
- $176
- 24h Vol
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill any tokenized basket or index investment product exceed $1 billion in AUM by the end of 2027?
- No53.5%
- Yes46.5%
- Total Vol
- $170
- 24h Vol
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the US treasury "be put on the blockchain" by the end of 2026?
- No95.1%
- Yes4.9%
- Total Vol
- $1.1K
- 24h Vol
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Ethereum have easily tradeable tokenized NYSE stocks by end of 2030?
- Yes75.6%
- No24.4%
- Total Vol
- $233
- 24h Vol
- —
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which company will have the top model on OpenRouter in December 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices DeepSeek at 15% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does Which company will have the top model on OpenRouter in December 2026? resolve?
- Which company will have the top model on OpenRouter in December 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Which company will have the top model on OpenRouter in December 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves to the company that authored the single most-used model on OpenRouter during December 2026, measured by token volume and computed from OpenRouter's official rankings dataset.