Will bitcoin rise to 85k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?
BitcoinOne-OffCryptoMiddle EastCommoditiesGeopolitics22dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 97.9%
Forecasters
59
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
May 5, 26, 7:26 AM UTCOct 1, 26, 12:00 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market resolves to YES if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $85,000 USD at any point before the Strait of Hormuz is officially designated as "freely open" by a consensus of international maritime governing bodies or major geopolitical authorities.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- For the price of Bitcoin, the market will use the daily closing price as reported on CoinMarketCap.
- Regarding the status of the Strait of Hormuz, "freely open" refers to the absence of significant state-imposed blockades, active military seizure of commercial vessels, or officially declared closures by relevant regional authorities (primarily Iran) that impede international shipping traffic.
- In the event of ambiguity, resolution will rely on reports from authoritative maritime security organizations, such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) or major news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press) confirming that shipping traffic is unencumbered by formal state intervention.
- The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime chokepoint through which a significant portion of the world's liquified natural gas and oil transit.