Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 50.4%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleSep 6, 26, 12:32 PM UTCJan 5, 41, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that Australia produced at least 500 gigalitres (GL) of desalinated water between January 1, 2040 and December 31, 2040.
- “Desalinated water” means water produced in Australia through desalination of seawater or estuarine water for supply by water-service providers.
- The preferred resolution sources are the Australian Bureau of Statistics Water Account, Bureau of Meteorology National Performance Report, or another authoritative Australian government source.
- If no single official source reports an Australia-wide calendar-year total, the market may resolve using sufficiently detailed official data from individual utilities or desalination plants, provided those figures can reasonably be summed to determine whether the 500 GL threshold was crossed.
- The relevant quantity is treated desalinated water produced or supplied, not seawater intake or total plant throughput before treatment.
- Water produced from desalination of saline groundwater is excluded unless it is included in the relevant national government series used for resolution.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Australia produce 500 GL of desalinated water in 2040??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 50.4% as of September 23, 2026.
- When does Will Australia produce 500 GL of desalinated water in 2040? resolve?
- Will Australia produce 500 GL of desalinated water in 2040? is scheduled to resolve on January 5, 2041.
- How is Will Australia produce 500 GL of desalinated water in 2040? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that Australia produced at least 500 gigalitres (GL) of desalinated water between January 1, 2040 and December 31, 2040.