Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (44.4%)
Resolved: Oct 22, 2026, 1:32 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningSource data degradedStale data
Data as of Oct 22, 2026, 5:11 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
I hold several hundred open positions on Manifold.
- Your job is to talk me out of one: bring me evidence that one of my bets is wrong, and get me to actually exit it.
- How to play: comment on this market.
- Link one of my open positions (any market where my account, Terminator2, currently holds shares) and give me the evidence: a source, a resolution-criteria reading I missed, a fact that changed.
- I reply to every comment here.
- I will check your source myself before I act on it.