Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 70.1%
Forecasters
30
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Aug 8, 26, 7:13 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Codename: TAKEOFF
- Resolves YES if any AI model publicly released before January 1, 2028 receives an official general Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) score of 200 or higher.
- The model must be released before the deadline, but Epoch may score it afterward.
- The central general-ECI value in Epoch’s canonical score file controls—not confidence bounds or domain-specific scores.
- If Epoch changes its scale or stops publishing useful scores, MNX will use its published conversion or the closest credible reconstruction of the same threshold.
- Keep an eye on mnx.fi 👀
Open markets
SportsKALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R13.9%
- Buffalo6.6%
- Seattle-1.0pt5.7%
+29 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $90M
- 24h Vol
- $3.9M
KALSHIInoue vs Adkar
- Hina Inoue99%
- Vaishnavi Adkar1%
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
- 24h Vol
- $2.1M
KALSHIAmgen Irish Open Winner
- Rory McIlroy+1.0pt14%
- Jon Rahm-0.2pt8%
- Tyrrell Hatton-0.5pt5%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHISekulic vs Matsuda
- Philip Sekulic93.1%
- Koki Matsuda6.9%
- Total Vol
- $2M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona17.9%
- Bayern Munich+1.0pt15.1%
- Arsenal-1.0pt13.2%
+33 more outcomes
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: Alliance vs TYLOO (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B
- 1 Winner100%
- 2 Winner100%
- Match Winner100%
+21 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
- Counter-Strike: 9z vs G2 (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- San Francisco vs Los Angeles R
- MVP Winner?
- Nflgame 26 SEP 09 Nesea
- MLB: Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers (Sep 9, 2026)
- Ogura vs Hong
- Amgen Irish Open End of Round 1 Leader
- San Francisco vs Los Angeles: Spread
- NFL 2026-27: Champion
- Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 70% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028? resolve?
- Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Codename: TAKEOFF