What are the current odds for Will an LLM defeat Magnus Carlsen before 2029??

Manifold Markets prices No at 75.4% as of October 27, 2026.

When does Will an LLM defeat Magnus Carlsen before 2029? resolve?

Will an LLM defeat Magnus Carlsen before 2029? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 75.4%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 6 hours ago

Stale

Feb 25, 26, 6:45 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This market will be resolved as YES if Magnus Carlsen loses to a Large Language Model before Jan 1, 2029.

If the LLM uses a chess engine like Stockfish or writes its own chess engine during the game, it doesn't count.
In the unlikely scenario that Magnus Carlsen retires from playing chess before 2029, the market will be resolved as N/A.