Current community forecast
No 78.4%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleApr 22, 26, 7:20 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 8:08 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
In what year will a humanoid robot beat an olympic champion at their sport?
Manifold MarketsWill a robot beat an Olympic table tennis gold medalist before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill a humanoid robot beat a ranked top #10 tennis player by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a humanoid robot beat a human tennis pro in a singles match
Manifold MarketsAsian Table Tennis Championships: Jing-Kai Hung vs Dortguly Allanazarov
PolymarketAsian Table Tennis Championships: Khurshid Akhmedov vs Peng Xiang
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any time before January 1, 2028, an autonomous robot defeats an active (non-retired) athlete who has won an Olympic gold medal in table tennis in a standard match, or if a robot is officially recognized as having beaten an Olympic champion in a documented, competitive table tennis match.
- The match must be played under International Table Tennis Federation (ITTF) rules or similar professional standards.
- A "robot" is defined as a machine utilizing artificial intelligence to autonomously control paddle movement and ball tracking in real-time, without human remote operation.
- Table tennis is a high-speed sport requiring extreme precision, rapid reaction times, and tactical adaptation, making it a benchmark challenge for robotics and AI.
- While robotic systems have been developed to play table tennis, they have historically struggled against elite human players due to the speed and spin complexities inherent in professional play.
