Current community forecast
Yes 71%
Forecasters
74
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleMar 14, 23, 11:02 PM UTCMar 14, 33, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will AI be a top 3 political issue for voters?
Manifold MarketsMulti year market: Will AI be as big a political issue as abortion?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill OpenAI launch a token before 2027?
PolymarketWho IPOs first?
MyriadRules
Some singularitarians and transhumanists seem to have an almost childlike naivete about economic growth.
- No matter how fast AI develops technology, if politicians and government bureaucrats place enough roadblocks in the way of new technology, it won't be able to solve the problems it's supposed to solve.
- For example, in the UK, the planning system has made it almost impossible to build new onshore wind turbines and solar farms, and has even made it more difficult to build new offshore wind turbines:
- (https://www.youtube.com/embed/fCLHfjNTldQ)So at a certain point, politics becomes the limiting factor, not technology.
- In the UK, it won't matter how good wind turbine technology gets, if NIMBYs can still block most wind turbines from ever being erected.
- In California, it won't matter how good prefabricated home technology gets and how good house-building robots get, if NIMBYs can still block most new housing from ever being constructed.
Open markets
CryptoPOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+0.9pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $554.2K
- 24h Vol
- $500.1K
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 72,000+0.5pt100%
- 74,000+0.6pt100%
- 68,000+0.1pt100%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- ↑ 80,000+31.4pt100%
- ↓ 77,500100%
- ↑ 77,500100%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $290.5K
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- ↓ 60,000+10.4pt100%
- ↑ 80,000+11.9pt100%
- ↑ 75,000+30.4pt100%
+43 more outcomes
- What price will Bitcoin hit on September 8?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- What price will Ethereum hit in September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?
- What price will Ethereum hit on September 8?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 71% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033? resolve?
- Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033? is scheduled to resolve on March 14, 2033.
- How is Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Some singularitarians and transhumanists seem to have an almost childlike naivete about economic growth.