Current community forecast
Yes 71%
Forecasters
74
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 53 minutes ago
LaggingMar 14, 23, 11:02 PM UTCMar 14, 33, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Some singularitarians and transhumanists seem to have an almost childlike naivete about economic growth.
- No matter how fast AI develops technology, if politicians and government bureaucrats place enough roadblocks in the way of new technology, it won't be able to solve the problems it's supposed to solve.
- For example, in the UK, the planning system has made it almost impossible to build new onshore wind turbines and solar farms, and has even made it more difficult to build new offshore wind turbines:
- (https://www.youtube.com/embed/fCLHfjNTldQ)So at a certain point, politics becomes the limiting factor, not technology.
- In the UK, it won't matter how good wind turbine technology gets, if NIMBYs can still block most wind turbines from ever being erected.
- In California, it won't matter how good prefabricated home technology gets and how good house-building robots get, if NIMBYs can still block most new housing from ever being constructed.
