Current community forecast
No 79.4%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJul 2, 26, 5:36 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
A weather market includes weather futures, markets on snow, rain, temperature in a city.
- Things that would count: geoengineering, earthworks, reforestation
- An entity must manipulate the weather itself.
- The manipulation must have some reasonable intent of manipulating the prediction market.
- Manipulating a weather measurement device with false measurements does not count.
- However, manipulating a measurement device with real weather changes does count.