Current community forecast
No 79.4%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJul 2, 26, 5:36 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the NWS stop providing weather forecasts before 2027?
Manifold MarketsHow many all-time high temperature records will be broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
PolymarketWill the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?
PolymarketWill someone actually “dim the sun” by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?
Manifold MarketsRules
A weather market includes weather futures, markets on snow, rain, temperature in a city.
- Things that would count: geoengineering, earthworks, reforestation
- An entity must manipulate the weather itself.
- The manipulation must have some reasonable intent of manipulating the prediction market.
- Manipulating a weather measurement device with false measurements does not count.
- However, manipulating a measurement device with real weather changes does count.
Open markets
CryptoPOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+0.9pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $554.2K
- 24h Vol
- $500.1K
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 72,000+0.5pt100%
- 74,000+0.6pt100%
- 68,000+0.1pt100%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- ↑ 80,000+31.4pt100%
- ↓ 77,500100%
- ↑ 77,500100%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $290.5K
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- ↓ 60,000+10.4pt100%
- ↑ 80,000+11.9pt100%
- ↑ 75,000+30.4pt100%
+43 more outcomes
- What price will Bitcoin hit on September 8?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- What price will Ethereum hit in September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?
- What price will Ethereum hit on September 8?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will someone manipulate the weather to manipulate a weather market??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 79% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will someone manipulate the weather to manipulate a weather market? resolve?
- Will someone manipulate the weather to manipulate a weather market? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will someone manipulate the weather to manipulate a weather market? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: A weather market includes weather futures, markets on snow, rain, temperature in a city.