Current community forecast
Yes 77.6%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleDec 29, 24, 8:46 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2028?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiBest AI in Sep 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Steve Wozniak, the co-founder of Apple Inc., proposed "The Coffee Test" as a benchmark for evaluating the capabilities of autonomous robots.
- The test requires a robot to enter an unfamiliar house, find the kitchen, identify the necessary tools and ingredients, and then prepare a cup of coffee.
- The Coffee Test challenges a robot's ability to navigate unknown environments, recognize objects, manipulate tools and materials, and follow a sequence of tasks to achieve a specific goal.
- While there have been significant advancements in robotics, no robot has yet passed The Coffee Test.
- Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" within a specific time frame before January 1st, 2030?
- Resolution criteria:
Open markets
TechKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors-3.0pt60.4%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons+3.0pt39.6%
- Total Vol
- $654.7K
- 24h Vol
- $626.1K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt34.3%
- 160-179+2.0pt23.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt19.1%
+23 more outcomes
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 78% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2030? resolve?
- Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Steve Wozniak, the co-founder of Apple Inc., proposed "The Coffee Test" as a benchmark for evaluating the capabilities of autonomous robots.