Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028?
SportsOne-OffChessMacro & EconomyBusiness & Corporate1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleAug 8, 26, 7:13 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Codename: LEAP
- Resolves YES if a model released after this market opened and before January 1, 2028 first appears on Epoch’s general Capabilities Index (ECI) leaderboard at least 9 points above the previous record.
- “Previous record” means the highest displayed central general-ECI score belonging to an earlier-released model.
- Confidence bounds and domain-specific scores do not count.
- The score must be published by April 30, 2028.
- Ordinary later leaderboard recalculations do not undo a genuine first-published jump.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028? resolve?
- Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Codename: LEAP