Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 59.4%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleDec 16, 23, 7:15 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
I will resolve YES if a novel computing medium (analog, optical, quantum, ect.) computer component enters market and is available and received by consumers by December 31, 2030.
- A novel computing medium shall be defined as any computing machine not utilizing silicone (or other semiconductor) based transistors.
- The consumer device can be either a component (GPU, Accelerator Card, ect.), or a standalone device (Mobile Phone, Wearable, ect.), but must be purchasable for $2000, 2023 purchasing power.
- Additionally Resolves YES, if any of the below markets resolve YES.
- https://manifold.markets/henryw/will-the-first-optical-computer-be?r=THVjYXNUaGVsZW4
- https://manifold.markets/AidenPetersen/will-we-see-analog-accelerators-in
Open markets
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 23, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $81,500 or above99%
- $82,500 or above99%
- $76,000 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $892.6K
- 24h Vol
- $888.5K
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 23, 2026 at 9am EDT?
- $85,000 or above99%
- $84,900 or above99%
- $84,700 or above99%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $788.7K
- 24h Vol
- $737K
KALSHIETH price range on Sep 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $2,540 to 2,579.99+81.0pt93%
- $3,300 to 3,339.9990%
- $3,460 or above90%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $663K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIETH price on Sep 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $1,940 or above99%
- $2,180 or above99%
- $2,260 or above+1.0pt99%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $825.6K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $77,000 or above+2.0pt99%
- $77,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $76,500 or above+2.0pt99%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 18 - September 25, 2026?
- 200-219+4.0pt38.5%
- 220-239+16.0pt38.5%
- 180-199-11.0pt9.6%
+23 more outcomes
- Elon Musk # tweets September 21 - September 23, 2026?
- Where will it rain on Sep 23, 2026?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 23, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 25 - October 2, 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 23, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Best AI this week
- Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
- How many launches will SpaceX have in September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a novel computing medium enter consumer electronics by EYO 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 59.4% as of September 23, 2026.
- When does Will a novel computing medium enter consumer electronics by EYO 2030? resolve?
- Will a novel computing medium enter consumer electronics by EYO 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Will a novel computing medium enter consumer electronics by EYO 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I will resolve YES if a novel computing medium (analog, optical, quantum, ect.) computer component enters market and is available and received by consumers by December 31, 2030.