Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastJacob Tsimerman 24.3%+6.8%Leader of 52 outcomes
Forecasters
394
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Sep 15, 23, 4:58 PMJul 31, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
0.3%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Jacob Tsimerman24%
Volume trend
$33.4kJul 87d of dataJul 14
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Every person who wins resolves to 25% (assuming it's 4 people who split it equally, in general we split it).
- It's very silly to bet people over 25%.
- In principle the Fields Medal could be awarded to fewer than four people but that's unlikely.
- I will resolve this as soon as I find out and not do any last-minute trading before resolving it.
- Update 2026-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Someone who declines a Fields Medal award will still count as a winner for resolution purposes (as occurred in 2006 with Grigori Perelman).