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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics
  3. Who will take Iran's place at the football world championship?
Manifold Markets

Who will take Iran's place at the football world championship?

GeopoliticsAISports1mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Iran will participate despite the conflict with the USA. 98%
Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters

21

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 5 days ago

Stale
Apr 5, 26, 3:47 PMJul 19, 26, 3:43 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Manifold Markets
Italy will participate as the world number 12.
0.5%
Manifold Markets
This answer option will not be resolved.
0.2%
Manifold Markets
Other
0.5%

Selected outcome

Iran will participate despite the conflict with the USA.98%

Rules

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves to the national football team that officially takes the place of Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup should Iran withdraw or be excluded from the tournament.
  • "Iran will participate": Resolves to YES if Iran remains in the tournament and competes in their scheduled matches.
  • "The next best Asian team": Resolves to YES if FIFA replaces Iran with an Asian Football Confederation (AFC) nation based on qualifying criteria (e.g., the highest-ranked non-qualified team from the AFC or the direct runner-up from the relevant qualifying pathway).
  • "Italy will participate as the world number 12": Resolves to YES if FIFA elects to replace Iran with Italy.
  • "Other": Resolves to YES if FIFA selects any other team not explicitly listed above, or if FIFA decides to proceed with the tournament without replacing Iran (e.g., playing with a reduced group).

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Rules

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves to the national football team that officially takes the place of Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup should Iran withdraw or be excluded from the tournament.
  • "Iran will participate": Resolves to YES if Iran remains in the tournament and competes in their scheduled matches.
  • "The next best Asian team": Resolves to YES if FIFA replaces Iran with an Asian Football Confederation (AFC) nation based on qualifying criteria (e.g., the highest-ranked non-qualified team from the AFC or the direct runner-up from the relevant qualifying pathway).
  • "Italy will participate as the world number 12": Resolves to YES if FIFA elects to replace Iran with Italy.
  • "Other": Resolves to YES if FIFA selects any other team not explicitly listed above, or if FIFA decides to proceed with the tournament without replacing Iran (e.g., playing with a reduced group).