Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 4:30 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
@Jack1 38.1%-0.5ptLeader of 15 outcomes
Forecasters
25
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-25.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJan 20, 26, 7:51 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to a poll after market close.
- I reserve the right to exclude answers that are duplicates or do not unambiguously refer to a single Manifold user.
- If there are too many options by the time the market closes, I may exclude an unspecified number of least likely contenders.
- Feel free to add answers, bots are allowed.
- "Best trader" is inherently subjective and can be measured by various metrics—profit, prediction accuracy, Sharpe ratio, portfolio performance, or influence on the platform.