Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastAvatar: The Last Airbender (live action) [NO] | The Wheel of Time [YES] 100%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleMar 28, 24, 9:16 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
100%
100%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Format: show one [NO] | show two [YES]
- show one resolves left (NO), show two resolves right (YES)
- Any show that is cancelled, finishes its run by releasing a final episode, or otherwise ends with no reasonable potential for future episodes resolves.
- Standard open-ended (multi-season) series are good, but limited- or mini-series are deterministic and are invalid.
- Any show that is "on hiatus indefinitely" for at least one continuous year also resolves.
- Add your own! All types of "shows" are fair game, whether on syndication, streaming, youtube, or whatnot.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.5pt70.6%
- 940 - 950m-17.0pt25.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $371.8K
- 24h Vol
- $113.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+26.0pt67%
- Jack Barton-7.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt19%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-5.5pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.6pt9%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $93K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.8K
- 24h Vol
- $52.7K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer-1.0pt17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which shows will finish first??
- Manifold Markets prices Avatar: The Last Airbender (live action) [NO] | The Wheel of Time [YES] at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which shows will finish first? resolve?
- Which shows will finish first? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Which shows will finish first? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Format: show one [NO] | show two [YES]