Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 6:32 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Starship 45.7%Leader of 4 outcomes
Starship 45.7%Forecasters
25
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJan 3, 25, 11:48 PM UTCDec 31, 32, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Market resolves once one of these launches with humans on board.
- Launch doesn't have to be successful.
- Launch doesn't have to be orbital (point-to-point counts).
- Launch does have to be the full stack (only second stage of Starship doesn't count)