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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. AI
  3. Which of xAI, Anthropic, and OpenAI will IPO first?
Manifold Markets

Which of xAI, Anthropic, and OpenAI will IPO first?

AITech4y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
xAI 99.1%
Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters

148

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Stale
Dec 3, 25, 12:54 AMDec 3, 30, 12:54 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Manifold Markets
Anthropic
0.5%
Manifold Markets
OpenAI
0.4%

Selected outcome

xAI99%

Rules

Resolution Criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves to the company that is the first to be publicly traded.
  • Qualifying Events The following events count as an IPO for the purpose of this market:
  • Traditional IPO
  • Direct Listing
  • Merging with another private company then IPOing together (e.g. xAI and SpaceX)

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When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?

When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?

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By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

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SpaceX highest valuation by end of June 2026

$2K
≥$1T: 100%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$63,758.66+0.09%SolanaSOL$67.29+0.44%EthereumETH$1,669.74-0.86%DogecoinDOGE$0.088+1.37%BNBBNB$605.93+0.16%XRPXRP$1.14-0.95%

Related News

Anthropic launches Claude Fable 5 with new safeguardsCrypto NewsEU orders Meta to restore WhatsApp access for rival AI chatbotsCrypto NewsJPMorgan plans longer-running AI agents for corporate workflows Crypto NewsOpenAI Files for IPO, Targets Valuation Up to $850BBlockchain.NewsOpenAI confidentially files to go public in the USCointelegraphNvidia expands South Korean AI partnerships across chips, cloud, and robotics Crypto News

Rules

Resolution Criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves to the company that is the first to be publicly traded.
  • Qualifying Events The following events count as an IPO for the purpose of this market:
  • Traditional IPO
  • Direct Listing
  • Merging with another private company then IPOing together (e.g. xAI and SpaceX)