Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 2:33 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastMoonbase 51.3%
Forecasters
16
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMar 25, 26, 5:07 AM UTCMar 25, 36, 5:02 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail?
Manifold MarketsWill California high-speed rail use Siemens trains?
Manifold Markets🚅 Will the California High Speed Rail Initial Operating Segment open by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
KalshiWill California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
KalshiWill there be a high-speed rail between LA and SF by the end of 2040?
Manifold MarketsRules
Moonbase: a single pressurized volume on the Moon with at least six occupants for a contiguous Earth year.
- the named outcome: At least one human must travel, successfully, from SF to LA (or the reverse).
- Tracks must be capable of at least 90mph for SF-Gilroy and Burbank-Anaheim, and at least 155 mph for the remaining pieces, with the majority of the travel distance exceeding those minimums.
- (Current plans have speeds below what would normally qualify as HSR for those sections.
- And obviously the train will slow down for intermediate stops.)
- Related: @/EvanDaniel/which-is-first-crewed-starships-to
