Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastAIME thresholds 98.8%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleApr 16, 26, 2:30 AM UTCMay 2, 27, 2:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
USA(J)MO cutoffs are biased?
Manifold MarketsWhich of the following will I achieve in the 2026-2027 TST Cycle?
Manifold MarketsWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill I remain in Montreal past September?
Manifold MarketsWill NJ Transit rail on-time performance reach 90% in November?
KalshiRules
An official public announcement on the MAA website, an official email announcement to competition managers, an official announcement on student or competition manager portals, or any other form of official public announcement by MAA will result in a YES resolution, provided the announcement has cutoff numbers
- For AMC 8/10/12 DHR/HR, cutoff numbers for top 1% and top 5% being posted on the MAA EdVistas Score Distribution page will also suffice for a YES resolution
- DHR refers to Distinguished Honor Roll / Honor Roll of Distinction (top 1%)
- HR refers to Honor Roll / Distinction (top 5%)
Open markets
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64+5.0pt46.1%
- 65-89+5.0pt29.4%
- <40-3.0pt15.7%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $41.4K
- 24h Vol
- $13.7K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No99%
- Yes-49.0pt1%
- Total Vol
- $12.2K
- 24h Vol
- $8.6K
KALSHIWill NJ Transit rail on-time performance reach 90% in November?
- No87%
- Yes+1.0pt13%
- Total Vol
- $9.7K
- 24h Vol
- $1.7K
POLYMARKETWill Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- No-2.0pt76%
- Yes+2.0pt24%
- Total Vol
- $16.4K
- 24h Vol
- $707.5
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which cutoffs will MAA announce in the 2026-27 competition cycle??
- Manifold Markets prices AIME thresholds at 99% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Which cutoffs will MAA announce in the 2026-27 competition cycle? resolve?
- Which cutoffs will MAA announce in the 2026-27 competition cycle? is scheduled to resolve on May 2, 2027.
- How is Which cutoffs will MAA announce in the 2026-27 competition cycle? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: An official public announcement on the MAA website, an official email announcement to competition managers, an official announcement on student or competition manager portals, or any other form of official public announcement by MAA will result in a YES resolution, provided the announcement has cutoff numbers