Which continent will primarily host the 2038 FIFA World Cup?
SportsOne-OffSoccerLatin AmericaFIFA World Cup4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastCONCACAF / North America 35.4%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJul 19, 26, 8:56 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Due to Europe, Africa and South America jointly hosting the 2030 World Cup, in 2038, under the current rotation model (established in the chaotic early days of the World Cup, where a lack of alternation led to boycotts in protest of the unfairness of one continent's footballers having more travel costs and overhead than the other), they will be ineligible to bid for the World Cup, forcing it to be in North America or Oceania.
- However, Oceania lacks large stadiums, and almost all of the large stadiums in North America are in the United States, Canada and Mexico, which already hosted the World Cup in 2026! So FIFA is forced to choose between an unusually tight turnaround for a federation, or an unusually tight turnaround for a country.
- [image]Resolves at the continental federation that hosts the most games of the 2038 FIFA World Cup.
- If two continental federations host the same number of games, resolves at the host of the final.
Open markets
Sports
KALSHISabalenka vs Noskova
- Aryna Sabalenka+6.0pt74.5%
- Linda Noskova-5.0pt25.5%
- Total Vol
- $14.2M
- 24h Vol
- $13.1M
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- 2 Winner+33.0pt100%
- O/U 2.5 Games+57.0pt100%
- 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)100%
+29 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona18.1%
- Arsenal15.2%
- Paris Saint-Germain13.3%
+33 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $27.9M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova Quarter Finals match
- Aryna Sabalenka72.6%
- Linda Noskova27.4%
- Total Vol
- $18.1K
- 24h Vol
- $2.2M
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz57%
- Alexander Zverev+5.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton9%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $28M
- 24h Vol
- $2.2M
KALSHIClub Brugge vs Aston Villa
- Aston Villa+49.0pt87.1%
- Tie-17.0pt9.9%
- Club Brugge-31.0pt3%
- Total Vol
- $2.5M
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF
- US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova
- Tiafoe vs Michelsen
- Genoa: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Francesco Ferrari
- United Arab Emirates vs Bangladesh
- 2027 Pro Football Champion
- MLB: Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers (Sep 7, 2026)
- MLB: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins (Sep 7, 2026)
- Amgen Irish Open Winner
- MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals (Sep 7, 2026)
- Real Madrid vs Inter
- US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which continent will primarily host the 2038 FIFA World Cup??
- Manifold Markets prices CONCACAF / North America at 35% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which continent will primarily host the 2038 FIFA World Cup? resolve?
- Which continent will primarily host the 2038 FIFA World Cup? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Which continent will primarily host the 2038 FIFA World Cup? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Due to Europe, Africa and South America jointly hosting the 2030 World Cup, in 2038, under the current rotation model (established in the chaotic early days of the World Cup, where a lack of alternation led to boycotts in protest of the unfairness of one continent's footballers having more travel costs and overhead than the other), they will be ineligible to bid for the World Cup, forcing it to be in North America or Oceania.