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| # | Name | Price | 1h % | 24h % | 7d % | Market Cap | Volume(24h) | Circulating Supply | Last 7 Days |
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When will U.S. ground forces first enter Iranian territory? (April 2026)
17dManifold MarketsNo KYCAlerts
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Forecast context
Current community forecast
April 8 - 14 2.3%
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleLast updated: Apr 12, 9:17 PM
Resolves
Apr 30, 2026, 11:59 PM
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-
Started Apr 8, 2026, 3:52 AMEnds Apr 30, 2026, 11:59 PM
Trends
Outcome24hChance
Rules
This market will resolve to YES for the bucket corresponding to the Washington, D.C. (Eastern Time) date that conventional or special operations ground forces of the United States first physically enter the sovereign land territory of Iran. All other options will resolve to NO.
- If no such confirmation occurs by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to Not in April 2026.
- Sovereign Land Territory: Includes the Iranian mainland and internationally recognized Iranian islands (e.g., Kharg Island, Abu Musa, Sirri Island), as well as physically boarding and occupying Iranian-flagged offshore oil platforms within Iranian territorial waters.
- Ground Forces: Implies intentional "boots on the ground" deployments for the purpose of combat, raiding, sabotage, or occupation. This includes both conventional infantry/armor units (e.g., Marines, Army Airborne) and special operations forces (e.g., Navy SEALs, Delta Force, Army Rangers).
- Resolution will be based on official government or military announcements from the United States (e.g., Department of Defense press releases, Presidential addresses), or strong, corroborated consensus reporting from top-tier, credible international news organizations (e.g., AP, Reuters, BBC, NYT, WSJ) confirming the specific date the physical incursion began.
- Exclusions (NOT a YES):
Topics
PoliticsGeopoliticsCommodities
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