Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Second half of 2026 94.2%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleFeb 17, 24, 2:32 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
Rules
In 2021, Ufotable put out a teaser for a Witch on the Holy Night movie, slated for release in 2023.
- It is now 2024, with no movie yet released and no replacement release date in sight.
- (Although we did, on December 31st of 2023, get a second teaser.)
- This market will resolve whenever the movie teased by those teasers comes out.
- In the event that they expand it into a multipart series, it will resolve whenever the first movie in the series comes out.
- (More release-time-options will be added to the market as currently-available ones time out.)
Open markets
Entertainment
POLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+8.5pt76.5%
- 940 - 950m-11.0pt18.6%
- 960 - 970m-0.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $398.4K
- 24h Vol
- $106K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
- Above 60+2.0pt99%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $212.1K
- 24h Vol
- $105.5K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+7.0pt45%
- Jack Barton-5.0pt20%
- Callum Turner-5.0pt18%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+24.1pt46.2%
- No Bond chosen-1.5pt19.8%
- Jack Barton-1.4pt10.4%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45+15.0pt99%
- Above 50+39.0pt97%
- Above 55+42.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $307.5K
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-51.0pt16%
- Above 408%
- Above 50-57.0pt7%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $99.8K
- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Ufotable's Witch on the Holy Night movie be released??
- Manifold Markets prices Second half of 2026 at 94% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will Ufotable's Witch on the Holy Night movie be released? resolve?
- When will Ufotable's Witch on the Holy Night movie be released? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is When will Ufotable's Witch on the Holy Night movie be released? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: In 2021, Ufotable put out a teaser for a Witch on the Holy Night movie, slated for release in 2023.