Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore Jan 1 2030 90.6%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
19
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleApr 14, 24, 10:26 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which booster will fly 50 times first?
Manifold MarketsWill Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket fly 50 times before 2030?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiETH price on Sep 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 15 - September 22, 2026?
PolymarketRules
In April 2024, B1062 became the first falcon booster to reach 20 flights.
- The company says it is currently qualifying them to fly 40 times each.
- Coincidentally(?), if a booster flies 40 times, it will also break Discovery's record 39 flights, though the comparison of a shuttle orbiter and first stage of a more traditional rocket is difficult.
- Market resolves after a successful flight to orbit.
- Landing is not necessary.
- Local time at launch site.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $79,500 or above99%
- $79,000 or above99%
- $78,750 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
- $1.3M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 21, 2026 at 9am EDT?
- $83,700 or above99%
- $83,400 or above99%
- $83,500 or above99%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $667.3K
- 24h Vol
- $498.2K
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $75,500 or above+6.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $72,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 21, 2026?
- Boston+42.0pt99%
- New York City+64.0pt99%
- Providence+59.0pt99%
+24 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $260.3K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 19 - September 21, 2026?
- 40-64+28.0pt95%
- 65-89-10.0pt5%
- <40-34.5pt0%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 15 - September 22, 2026?
- 180-199+12.0pt47.5%
- 200-219+5.0pt41.6%
- 220-239-9.0pt6.9%
+23 more outcomes
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
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- ETH price on Sep 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 18 - September 25, 2026?
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 21, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- ETH price on Sep 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 21, 2026?
- SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Highest temperature in Atlanta on Sep 21, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will a single Falcon 9 booster fly 40 times?
- Manifold Markets prices Before Jan 1 2030 at 91% as of September 21, 2026.
- When does When will a single Falcon 9 booster fly 40 times resolve?
- When will a single Falcon 9 booster fly 40 times is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is When will a single Falcon 9 booster fly 40 times settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: In April 2024, B1062 became the first falcon booster to reach 20 flights.