What proportion of John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older will identify as LGBTQ+?
One-OffSociety & CultureScienceManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 75.4%
Forecasters
49
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJun 18, 22, 1:58 PM UTCJan 2, 00, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Conditional on more than 1,000 persons conceived through cloning from John von Neumann's genome reaching age 20 or older by 2100, this question resolves PROB, where PROB is the proportion of persons conceived through cloning from John von Neumann age 20 or older who, in a survey, identify as LGBTQ+.
- This survey will be conducted as soon as possible once there are more than 1,000 such persons, and will aim to contact all such persons (though some amount of nonresponse is inevitable).
