Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.4%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleNov 25, 25, 11:59 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.
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PolymarketWill Disney be acquired by the end of Bob Iger's tenure as CEO?
Manifold MarketsWill MSFT acquire/merge with OpenAI by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $555.4K
- 24h Vol
- $499.3K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+13.0pt68.6%
- 65-89+5.0pt30.4%
- 90-114-3.5pt1%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA78.2%
- Apple+0.1pt13.9%
- Alphabet6.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.9M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-199-1.0pt17.1%
- 200-219-1.0pt16.2%
- 160-179+2.0pt15.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIIllinois nuclear electricity generation in 2026
- Above 87.5 TWh97%
- Above 90.0 TWh+1.0pt96%
- Above 92.5 TWh+3.0pt95%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $132.2K
KALSHIWashington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Above 80,000 jobs98%
- Above 81,000 jobs95%
- Above 82,000 jobs+3.0pt92%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $220.4K
- Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- 3rd Largest Company end of September?
- Largest Company end of September?
- Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Satya Nadella out as CEO of MSFT by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Satya Nadella out as CEO of MSFT by EOY 2026? resolve?
- Satya Nadella out as CEO of MSFT by EOY 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.