Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.5%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 5, 25, 9:02 PM UTCDec 31, 34, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolves NO if the series finishes adapting the book series up to and including the Deathly Hallows.
- Otherwise, resolves YES if a cancellation is officially announced, or if more than 2 years have passed since the last part with no release in sight.
- Update 2026-05-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the series diverges from the books but finishes on its own terms:
- If it feels rushed, resolves YES
- If it feels well-paced and covers a roughly equivalent length of events, resolves NO
- If particularly close, trader consensus will be sought; if no reasonable consensus, resolves N/A