July 2026 AI model releases

AIOne-Off30d

Manifold MarketsNo KYC

Current community forecast

Gemini 3.x Pro 82%+32.0%

Leader of 17 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 14 hours ago

Stale

Jun 30, 26, 6:36 PMJul 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Gemini 3.x Pro82%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during July 2026.

A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership).
Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant, Flash Image all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for "GPT5.5").
Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family.
When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.
Please ask for clarifications.

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Which company has best AI model end of July?

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GPT-5.6 released by...?

$222K

July 31: 94%

POLYMARKET

GPT-5.6 Sol vs Claude Fable 5, which will be broadly available first?

$14.7K

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MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Claude Fable 5 be re-enabled for Non-Americans before July 1st, 2026?

$11.9K

Yes: 1%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?

$7K

By Dec 31, 2025: 74%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

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July 2026 AI model releases

AIOne-Off30d

Manifold MarketsNo KYC

Current community forecast

Gemini 3.x Pro 82%+32.0%

Leader of 17 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 14 hours ago

Stale

Jun 30, 26, 6:36 PMJul 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Gemini 3.x Pro82%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during July 2026.

A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership).
Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant, Flash Image all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for "GPT5.5").
Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family.
When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it.
Please ask for clarifications.

Related Markets

Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

$1.3M

December 31: 100%

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of July?

$354.1K

Anthropic: 86%

POLYMARKET

GPT-5.6 released by...?

$222K

July 31: 94%