Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: August 2026 (96.1%)
Resolved: Aug 8, 2026, 9:56 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecast
August 2026 96.1%Leader of 20 outcomes
Forecasters
28
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+11.1 pts
Market data
Updated 11 days ago
StaleDec 11, 24, 6:34 AMAug 8, 26, 9:56 PM
Probability Timeline
March 20250.1%
April 20250.1%
May 20250.1%
June 20250.2%
July 20250.2%
August 20250.3%
Sept 20250.5%
Oct 20250.3%
Nov 20250.2%
Dec 20250.4%
March 20260.2%
April 20260.3%
February 20260.3%
June 20260.3%
May 20260.3%
Other0.4%
July 20260.2%
August 202696.1%
September 20260.3%
October 20260.4%
96.1%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Rules
https://manifold.markets/leaderboards
