Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 83.9%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleDec 2, 24, 7:11 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market resolves to YES if Taylor Swift publicly confirms or credible sources report that she used a surrogate for any pregnancy resulting in a child born before January 1, 2027.
- If she becomes pregnant and gives birth herself, the market resolves to NO.
- If Taylor Swift does not get pregnant/a surrogate does not become pregnant with a child Taylor plans to raise before January 1, 2027, the market resolves to N/A. • “Credible sources” include major news outlets or statements from Swift or her representatives.
- • Speculative rumors without credible backing will not suffice for a YES resolution.
- • Wording note: one commenter has said “if she uses a surrogate she isn’t pregnant” and while this is technically accurate, it has become common parlance for celebrities to describe surrogacy as a pregnancy, or announce a pregnancy and later reveal that a surrogate was involved.
Open markets
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- 940 - 950m-17.0pt25.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- No Bond chosen-5.5pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.6pt9%
+21 more outcomes
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- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.8K
- 24h Vol
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- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
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- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
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- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If Taylor Swift is expecting a child before 2027, will she use a surrogate??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If Taylor Swift is expecting a child before 2027, will she use a surrogate? resolve?
- If Taylor Swift is expecting a child before 2027, will she use a surrogate? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is If Taylor Swift is expecting a child before 2027, will she use a surrogate? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves to YES if Taylor Swift publicly confirms or credible sources report that she used a surrogate for any pregnancy resulting in a child born before January 1, 2027.