Current community forecast
No 66.6%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleMay 19, 26, 8:40 PM UTCMay 19, 76, 8:38 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market resolves Yes if Elon Musk personally flies aboard a spacecraft that reaches an altitude exceeding 2,000 km above Earth's surface (or achieves a trajectory that escapes Low Earth Orbit) at any point before his death.
- It resolves No only if he does fly to space (crossing the Kármán line at 100 km) during his lifetime but all of his spaceflights remain in Low Earth Orbit (maximum altitude below 2,000 km).
- The market will be voided (N/A) if Elon Musk never flies to space at all before his death.
