Current community forecast
8 or fewer 5.4%-8.8%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 26 minutes ago
Jul 21, 26, 10:56 AMAug 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
8 or fewer5%
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Resolves to number of successful launches of all variants of orbital launch vehicles on Nextspaceflight's Manifest Page. https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?q=&f=agency_1&tab=
- for August 2026, UTC time.
- If that page is demonstrably wrong or out of date, then I will either wait for update or a correct source will be decided upon and used as a replacement.
- A launch is considered successful if it is outlined in green on the linked manifest page.
- Launches outlined with red (failure) or orange (partial failure) will not count as successful.
- (Starship is considered an orbital launch vehicle, regardless of true orbit not being demonstrated.