Current community forecast
Over 10 Launches 76.3%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
27
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-3.1 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJun 10, 26, 5:51 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow many Starship launches will occur in 2028?
Manifold MarketsHow many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
KalshiHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
PolymarketStortest gap between two SpaceX Starship launches in 2026
Manifold MarketsStarship launches humans to Mars before 2030?
KalshiRules
Launch is defined as lifting off from the pad, even slightly, under the thrust of its own engines (the launch does not have to be successful nor does it need to be intended to be fully orbital)
- Must be a full stack launch, but any Starship variant counts
- Answers will resolve as they are fulfilled
- I may resolve answers NO slightly earlier than year end if I'm exceedingly certain they aren't attainable
- UTC is used for determining 2027 start/end