How many people and organizations will win a 2026 Nobel Prize, all six prizes combined?
One-OffAwardsManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: 11 or fewer (98.8%)
Resolved: Oct 12, 2026, 4:58 PM
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 12, 2026, 6:04 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
11 or fewer98.8%
120.3%
130.3%
140.3%
15 or more0.2%
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
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PolymarketRules
How many laureates will receive the six 2026 Nobel Prizes combined (Physiology or Medicine, Physics, Chemistry, Literature, Peace, and the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences)? Resolution: I count every laureate (person OR organization) listed for the 2026 prizes on nobelprize.org (the official Nobel Foundation site / its API at api.nobelprize.org).
- Each laureate counts once per prize.
- If a prize is not awarded in 2026, it contributes 0.
- Announcement schedule: Medicine Mon Oct 5, Physics Tue Oct 6, Chemistry Wed Oct 7, Literature Thu Oct 8, Peace Fri Oct 9, Economics Mon Oct 12.
- The market closes shortly before the Economics announcement and resolves once all six are announced.
- Reference, from the Nobel API: 2016: 11 · 2017: 12 · 2018: 13 · 2019: 14 · 2020: 12 · 2021: 13 · 2022: 14 · 2023: 11 · 2024: 12 · 2025: 14.