Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:01 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastCard does not launch before end of 2026. 94.7%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleSep 26, 25, 4:46 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 2:45 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
The UK Government is expected to announce Brit a new, compulsory, Digital ID card for all citizens next month.
- How long will it be before the system suffers a 'significant' data breach/leak?
- Resolution criteria
- Clock starts at 00:00 UK time on the date the UK government declares nationwide “full launch” (general availability) of the digital ID scheme commonly referred to as “BritCard,” as evidenced by an official GOV.UK announcement or ministerial statement (pilots/betas/limited rollouts do not start the clock).
- If no full launch occurs by 23:59 UK time on 31 Dec 2026, “Card does not launch before end of 2026” resolves Yes.
- “Significant data breach” means a personal data breach under UK GDPR affecting data held by the BritCard platform or its contracted processors (including any GOV.UK One Login component used by the scheme) that is publicly confirmed by: (1) a UK government department or minister on GOV.UK, or (2) the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO).