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How interesting are my different ideas for LessWrong posts, and when will I post them?

One-OffAI Tech6mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYC

Current community forecast

1a) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up, >50 upvotes 54.4%

Leader of 24 outcomes

Forecasters

12

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 10 days ago

Stale

Jun 18, 26, 2:24 PMDec 31, 26, 2:03 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

1a) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up, >50 upvotes54%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

I have a few decent (I hope) LessWrong post ideas / rough sketches that I want to get done.

But will they be any good? Will the be engaging? Will I even get round to doing them? Maybe the people of Manifold can help answer these questions.
I hope this will be some degree of useful and/or fun.
===== Ideas & Metrics =====
Here's a brief summary of each post idea: 1) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up: A follow-up to this post / experiment, https://manifold.markets/post/ai-safety-research-futarchy-using-p, discussing updates and outcomes, as well as a bit of a post-mortem. 2) Prediction markets for good: I feel like at the moment there's a fair amount of negative discourse / bad-vibes around prediction markets in the broader EA / rat community and some people turning their back on them despite promises of greatness.
In my opinion we haven't really tried yet, and maybe people should start trying more.

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Rules

I have a few decent (I hope) LessWrong post ideas / rough sketches that I want to get done.

But will they be any good? Will the be engaging? Will I even get round to doing them? Maybe the people of Manifold can help answer these questions.
I hope this will be some degree of useful and/or fun.
===== Ideas & Metrics =====
Here's a brief summary of each post idea: 1) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up: A follow-up to this post / experiment, https://manifold.markets/post/ai-safety-research-futarchy-using-p, discussing updates and outcomes, as well as a bit of a post-mortem. 2) Prediction markets for good: I feel like at the moment there's a fair amount of negative discourse / bad-vibes around prediction markets in the broader EA / rat community and some people turning their back on them despite promises of greatness.
In my opinion we haven't really tried yet, and maybe people should start trying more.