Current community forecast
Yes 55.7%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Jun 18, 25, 6:19 PM UTCDec 31, 99, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a crewed Mars flyby or Mars orbit mission be attempted before a crewed Mars landing mission?
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KalshiLas Vegas vs San Francisco
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the California High-Speed Rail (HSR) system becomes operational between San Francisco and Los Angeles before a human lands alive on Mars. "Operational" is defined as the commencement of regular passenger service along the full route connecting San Francisco and Los Angeles.
- A "human landing on Mars" is defined as a human arriving on the Martian surface alive.
- The resolution will be based on official announcements from the California High-Speed Rail Authority and credible space agencies or organizations involved in Mars missions.
- The California High-Speed Rail project aims to connect San Francisco and Los Angeles via a 494-mile route.
- As of March 2024, the project has faced significant delays and cost overruns, with no set timeline for the full route's completion.
