Current community forecast
No 82.4%
Forecasters
37
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 25, 24, 11:02 PM UTCDec 30, 30, 4:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- Collective Intelligence (ANY of these):
- Platform predicts major events through emergent patterns before traditional methods (like Asimov's Multivac)
- Mathematical or scientific breakthrough emerges from seemingly unrelated posts with no single author
- New symbolic language evolves within hours across the platform (like in Ted Chiang's "Story of Your Life")
- Documented cases of "X-time" where users globally report altered time perception (like "fleet time" in Vinge's "A Fire Upon the Deep")
