Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJul 6, 25, 10:47 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 4:49 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will James enter into a committed relationship before he finishes "4-manifolds and Kirby calculus"
Manifold MarketsWill I submit a transfer application to Stanford by Mar 15, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Stanford University rank first overall in 2027?
ForecastExElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Aditya completes all requirements for a bachelor's degree at Stanford University and is officially conferred the degree by the end of 2028.
- Verification will be based on official university records or a public announcement from Stanford confirming the degree conferral.
- Stanford University requires undergraduates to complete a minimum of 180 units, fulfill general education requirements—including writing, language, and Ways of Thinking/Ways of Doing courses—and satisfy the requirements of a declared major.
- (bulletin.stanford.edu)
- Considerations
Open markets
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $35.8K
- 24h Vol
- $20.9K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
- Total Vol
- $10.2K
- 24h Vol
- $9K
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $17.9K
- 24h Vol
- $1.1K
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
- Total Vol
- $158.5K
- 24h Vol
- $487.1
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Aditya finishes Stanford undergrad by 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 94% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Aditya finishes Stanford undergrad by 2028? resolve?
- Aditya finishes Stanford undergrad by 2028? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.
- How is Aditya finishes Stanford undergrad by 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria