Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.5%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleMay 18, 26, 8:27 AM UTCMar 16, 27, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if I submit the Common Application to Stanford for Fall 2027 transfer entry, with the Stanford supplement and application fee (or fee waiver) completed, by 11:59 PM Central Time on March 15, 2027.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Close date: March 16, 2027.
- Notes: Resolution depends only on my submission of the applicant-controlled portion.
Open markets
Society & Culture
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $35.8K
- 24h Vol
- $20.9K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
- Total Vol
- $10.2K
- 24h Vol
- $9K
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $17.9K
- 24h Vol
- $1.1K
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
- Total Vol
- $158.5K
- 24h Vol
- $487.1
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?
- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will I submit a transfer application to Stanford by Mar 15, 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will I submit a transfer application to Stanford by Mar 15, 2027? resolve?
- Will I submit a transfer application to Stanford by Mar 15, 2027? is scheduled to resolve on March 16, 2027.
- How is Will I submit a transfer application to Stanford by Mar 15, 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if I submit the Common Application to Stanford for Fall 2027 transfer entry, with the Stanford supplement and application fee (or fee waiver) completed, by 11:59 PM Central Time on March 15, 2027.